Heat vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, January 11
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) host the Miami Heat (20-18) on Sunday, January 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 112 – Thunder 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 86% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 18-3 at home and the Heat are 7-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Thunder and 5-5 for the Heat (current streaks: Thunder W2, Heat L2).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 122 – 108 Heat, a margin of about 13.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+11.1 vs +1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (108.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAOKC
Top performers
Heat
Andrew WigginsF · #2223pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #210assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1314reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #229pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #710reboundsRecent form
MIAOKC
MIA
Team comparison
| MIA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-18 | Record | 32-7 |
| 117.4 | Points scored / game | 121.1 |
| 115.7 | Points allowed / game | 108.1 |
| +1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +11.1 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 7-12 road | Home / road record | 18-3 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.