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Bucks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Thursday, January 15

FinalFrost Bank Center · FanDuel SN WI, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SW
31% win MILwin SA 69%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin6.1
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (27-14) host the Milwaukee Bucks (17-23) on Thursday, January 15 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 101 – Spurs 119. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 69% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Spurs are 13-5 at home and the Bucks are 8-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Spurs and 5-5 for the Bucks (current streaks: Spurs L2, Bucks L2).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Spurs 118 – 112 Bucks, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Spurs' offense (116.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs
Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +2.4 / MIL -1.5 per game
+3.8
Home-court advantageSpurs at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Spurs
+6.1

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Bucks win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

MILSA
113.3
Points scored / game
116.7
115.1
Points allowed / game
113.9
44.9 %
Field goal %
46.0 %
34.0 %
3-point %
34.6 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
71.6 %
Free throw %
78.3 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
45.0
24.6
Assists / game
28.2
5.8
Steals / game
9.8
4.0
Blocks / game
6.6
16.8
Turnovers / game
12.8

Top performers

Bucks
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #721pts / game
Ryan RollinsG · #137assists
Ryan RollinsG · #137rebounds
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #122pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #510assists
Julian ChampagnieF · #3011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
SA
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

SA lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MILSA
17-23Record27-14
113.3Points scored / game116.7
115.1Points allowed / game113.9
-1.5Adjusted margin / game+2.4
L2Current streakL2
5-5Last 10 games4-6
8-13 roadHome / road record13-5 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season34-48 (-2.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.