Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Bucks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 7

FinalChase Center · NBC Sports BA, FanDuel SN WI
36% win MILwin GS 64%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin4.6
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (19-18) host the Milwaukee Bucks (16-20) on Wednesday, January 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 113 – Warriors 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 64% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 11-5 at home and the Bucks are 7-11 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Warriors and 5-5 for the Bucks (current streaks: Warriors L1, Bucks W2).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 116 – 112 Bucks, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS +1.5 / MIL -0.9 per game
+2.3
Home-court advantageWarriors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Warriors
+4.6

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Bucks win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

MILGS
113.9
Points scored / game
114.6
114.9
Points allowed / game
112.9
44.9 %
Field goal %
45.0 %
34.0 %
3-point %
36.9 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
71.6 %
Free throw %
82.2 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
43.8
24.6
Assists / game
25.6
5.8
Steals / game
9.6
4.0
Blocks / game
3.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.8

Top performers

Bucks
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #734pts / game
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #79assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #710rebounds
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3031pts / game
Stephen CurryG · #307assists
Al HorfordC · #2010rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
GS
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

MILGS
16-20Record19-18
113.9Points scored / game114.6
114.9Points allowed / game112.9
-0.9Adjusted margin / game+1.5
W2Current streakL1
5-5Last 10 games6-4
7-11 roadHome / road record11-5 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season48-34 (+3.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.