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Heat vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 6

FinalTarget Center · NBC, Peacock, FanDuel SN North
37% win MIAwin MIN 63%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.1
Projected total233
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13) host the Miami Heat (20-16) on Tuesday, January 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 94 – Timberwolves 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 63% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Timberwolves are 12-6 at home and the Heat are 7-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Timberwolves and 6-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Timberwolves W2, Heat W1).

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 114 Heat, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.2 / MIA +2.4 per game
+1.8
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.1

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Heat win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAMIN
118.3
Points scored / game
118.2
115.5
Points allowed / game
113.3
45.3 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
31.7 %
3-point %
38.4 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
71.7 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
42.8
Rebounds / game
51.6
27.0
Assists / game
27.0
8.4
Steals / game
9.2
5.4
Blocks / game
4.4
14.2
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Heat
Norman PowellG · #2421pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #29assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1311rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #526pts / game
Julius RandleF · #305assists
Rudy GobertC · #2716rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIA
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIN lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MIAMIN
20-16Record23-13
118.3Points scored / game118.2
115.5Points allowed / game113.3
+2.4Adjusted margin / game+4.2
W1Current streakW2
6-4Last 10 games6-4
7-10 roadHome / road record12-6 home
37-45 (+0.6)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.