Pelicans vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, January 4
At a glance
The Miami Heat (19-16) host the New Orleans Pelicans (8-28) on Sunday, January 4 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Pelicans 106 – Heat 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 78% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 12-6 at home and the Pelicans are 2-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Heat and 4-6 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Heat L1, Pelicans L6).
The analysis Model
The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Heat 122 – 112 Pelicans, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+2.1 vs -6.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (115.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOMIA
Top performers
Pelicans
Trey Murphy IIIF · #2527pts / game
Jordan PooleG · #38assistsTrey Murphy IIIF · #258reboundsHeat
Norman PowellG · #2434pts / game
Pelle LarssonG · #96assists
Kel'el WareC · #912reboundsRecent form
NOMIA
NO
Team comparison
| NO | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-28 | Record | 19-16 |
| 114.0 | Points scored / game | 118.1 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 115.7 |
| -6.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.1 |
| L6 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 2-12 road | Home / road record | 12-6 home |
| 21-61 (-9.4) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.