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Nuggets vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Friday, January 2

FinalRocket Arena · Prime Video, FanDuel SN OH, Altitude Sports, NBA League Pass
48% win DENwin CLE 52%
FavoriteCLE
Projected margin0.6
Projected total239
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (19-16) host the Denver Nuggets (23-10) on Friday, January 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 108 – Cavaliers 113. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Cavaliers a 52% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Cavaliers are 12-8 at home and the Nuggets are 13-5 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Cavaliers and 6-4 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Cavaliers W2, Nuggets W1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Cavaliers 120 – 119 Nuggets, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 239 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Nuggets' offense (124.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.6 / DEN +5.3 per game
-1.7
Home-court advantageCavaliers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Cavaliers
+0.6

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Nuggets win by 10+
20%

Stat comparison Current season

DENCLE
124.0
Points scored / game
120.2
117.7
Points allowed / game
115.9
45.8 %
Field goal %
46.8 %
32.8 %
3-point %
36.7 %
34.3
3-pointers attempted / game
37.5
79.6 %
Free throw %
79.3 %
44.5
Rebounds / game
47.0
26.0
Assists / game
26.3
10.0
Steals / game
8.8
4.8
Blocks / game
7.5
15.3
Turnovers / game
17.3

Top performers

Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2734pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #277assists
Jamal MurrayG · #276rebounds
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4533pts / game
Darius GarlandG · #108assists
Jarrett AllenC · #3112rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DEN
No games played yet.
CLE
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

CLE lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

DENCLE
23-10Record19-16
124.0Points scored / game120.2
117.7Points allowed / game115.9
+5.3Adjusted margin / game+3.6
W1Current streakW2
6-4Last 10 games5-5
13-5 roadHome / road record12-8 home
50-32 (+3.9)Last season64-18 (+9.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Cleveland Cavaliers Injury report Cavaliers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.