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76ers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 1

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBC Sports Phil, NBA League Pass, NBA TV
47% win PHIwin DAL 53%
FavoriteDAL
Projected margin0.9
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (12-22) host the Philadelphia 76ers (17-14) on Thursday, January 1 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: 76ers 123 – Mavericks 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Mavericks a 53% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 9-9 at home and the 76ers are 8-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Mavericks and 5-5 for the 76ers (current streaks: Mavericks L3, 76ers W1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Mavericks 116 – 115 76ers, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / PHI -1.4 per game
-1.4
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Mavericks
+0.9

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
76ers win by 10+
19%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIDAL
114.5
Points scored / game
113.9
116.2
Points allowed / game
117.1
42.8 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
32.6 %
3-point %
34.6 %
35.0
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
77.5 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
42.2
Rebounds / game
44.2
24.6
Assists / game
27.6
9.8
Steals / game
9.0
5.6
Blocks / game
7.4
12.6
Turnovers / game
15.6

Top performers

76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #034pts / game
Tyrese MaxeyG · #010assists
Tyrese MaxeyG · #08rebounds
Mavericks
Max ChristieG · #018pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #327assists
Anthony DavisF · #238rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHI
No games played yet.
DAL
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

PHI lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

PHIDAL
17-14Record12-22
114.5Points scored / game113.9
116.2Points allowed / game117.1
-1.4Adjusted margin / game-2.8
W1Current streakL3
5-5Last 10 games4-6
8-6 roadHome / road record9-9 home
24-58 (-6.2)Last season39-43 (-1.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

No injuries reported.

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.