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Mavericks vs 76ers prediction NBA · Saturday, December 20

FinalXfinity Mobile Arena · NBC Sports Phil, KFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBA League Pass
43% win DALwin PHI 57%
FavoritePHI
Projected margin2.3
Projected total228
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (15-11) host the Dallas Mavericks (11-17) on Saturday, December 20 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 114 – 76ers 121. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the 76ers a 57% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the 76ers are 8-7 at home and the Mavericks are 3-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the 76ers and 6-4 for the Mavericks (current streaks: 76ers W1, Mavericks W1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects 76ers 115 – 113 Mavericks, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI -0.9 / DAL -2.5 per game
+1.6
Home-court advantage76ers at home
+2.3
Back-to-back76ers played yesterday
-1.6
Expected marginfor 76ers
+2.3

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Mavericks win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

DALPHI
113.4
Points scored / game
114.5
116.3
Points allowed / game
115.6
49.0 %
Field goal %
42.8 %
34.6 %
3-point %
32.6 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
35.0
76.7 %
Free throw %
77.5 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
42.2
27.6
Assists / game
24.6
9.0
Steals / game
9.8
7.4
Blocks / game
5.6
15.6
Turnovers / game
12.6

Top performers

Mavericks
Anthony DavisF · #2324pts / game
Brandon WilliamsG · #125assists
Anthony DavisF · #2315rebounds
76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #038pts / game
Quentin GrimesG · #57assists
Andre DrummondC · #012rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
PHI
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

PHI lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

DALPHI
11-17Record15-11
113.4Points scored / game114.5
116.3Points allowed / game115.6
-2.5Adjusted margin / game-0.9
W1Current streakW1
6-4Last 10 games6-4
3-8 roadHome / road record8-7 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season24-58 (-6.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.