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Warriors vs Hornets prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 31

FinalSpectrum Center · FanDuel SN SE, NBC Sports BA, NBA TV
62% win GSwin CHA 38%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin3.7
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (11-21) host the Golden State Warriors (17-16) on Wednesday, December 31 at 1:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 132 – Hornets 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 62% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Hornets are 7-9 at home and the Warriors are 7-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Hornets and 6-4 for the Warriors (current streaks: Hornets L1, Warriors W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Hornets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hornets 112 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-4.0 vs +2.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA -4.0 / GS +2.0 per game
-6.0
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hornets
-3.7

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
14%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Warriors win by 10+
31%

Stat comparison Current season

GSCHA
114.7
Points scored / game
112.7
112.4
Points allowed / game
117.4
45.0 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
36.9 %
3-point %
30.6 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
82.2 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
47.4
25.6
Assists / game
20.6
9.6
Steals / game
6.8
3.8
Blocks / game
5.2
16.8
Turnovers / game
19.0

Top performers

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3026pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #2312assists
Draymond GreenF · #238rebounds
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2433pts / game
Kon KnueppelG · #78assists
Moussa DiabateF · #148rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
CHA
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

GS lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

GSCHA
17-16Record11-21
114.7Points scored / game112.7
112.4Points allowed / game117.4
+2.0Adjusted margin / game-4.0
W1Current streakL1
6-4Last 10 games5-5
7-12 roadHome / road record7-9 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season19-63 (-9.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.