Nuggets vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, December 29
At a glance
The Miami Heat (17-15) host the Denver Nuggets (22-9) on Monday, December 29 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 123 – Heat 147. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 56% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Heat are 11-5 at home and the Nuggets are 12-4 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Heat and 7-3 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Heat W2, Nuggets L1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Heat 118 – 120 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 237 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (+1.8 vs +6.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (124.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENMIA
Top performers
Nuggets
Nikola JokicC · #1521pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2711assistsJamal MurrayG · #276reboundsHeat
Norman PowellG · #2425pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #2411assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1310reboundsRecent form
DENMIA
MIA
Team comparison
| DEN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-9 | Record | 17-15 |
| 124.4 | Points scored / game | 117.5 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 115.4 |
| +6.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 12-4 road | Home / road record | 11-5 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.