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Warriors vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, December 28

FinalScotiabank Arena · NBC Sports BA, NBA League Pass, Sportsnet
50% win GSwin TOR 50%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin0.1
Projected total226
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (18-14) host the Golden State Warriors (16-15) on Sunday, December 28 at 3:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 127 – Raptors 141. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 50% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Raptors are 8-7 at home and the Warriors are 6-11 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Raptors and 5-5 for the Warriors (current streaks: Raptors L1, Warriors W3).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 113 – 114 Warriors, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR -0.3 / GS +2.1 per game
-2.4
Home-court advantageRaptors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Raptors
-0.1

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Warriors win by 10+
22%

Stat comparison Current season

GSTOR
114.3
Points scored / game
112.8
111.9
Points allowed / game
113.2
45.0 %
Field goal %
44.2 %
36.9 %
3-point %
30.4 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
34.5
82.2 %
Free throw %
79.0 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
45.8
25.6
Assists / game
27.3
9.6
Steals / game
14.3
3.8
Blocks / game
5.5
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3039pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #237assists
Will RichardG · #37rebounds
Raptors
Immanuel QuickleyG · #527pts / game
Scottie BarnesF · #410assists
Scottie BarnesF · #425rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
TOR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

TOR lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

GSTOR
16-15Record18-14
114.3Points scored / game112.8
111.9Points allowed / game113.2
+2.1Adjusted margin / game-0.3
W3Current streakL1
5-5Last 10 games3-7
6-11 roadHome / road record8-7 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season30-52 (-4.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Toronto Raptors Injury report Raptors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.