Pistons vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, December 18
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (10-17) host the Detroit Pistons (21-5) on Thursday, December 18 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Pistons 114 – Mavericks 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pistons a 64% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 7-9 at home and the Pistons are 9-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Mavericks and 7-3 for the Pistons (current streaks: Mavericks L1, Pistons W4).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 118 Pistons, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-2.6 vs +4.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pistons' offense (118.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DETDAL
Top performers
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #229pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #29assists
Jalen DurenC · #013reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3223pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assists
Anthony DavisF · #2314reboundsRecent form
DETDAL
DAL
Team comparison
| DET | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-5 | Record | 10-17 |
| 118.1 | Points scored / game | 113.3 |
| 113.2 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +4.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.6 |
| W4 | Current streak | L1 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 9-3 road | Home / road record | 7-9 home |
| 44-38 (+1.9) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pistons
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.