Heat vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 3
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (7-15) host the Miami Heat (14-7) on Wednesday, December 3 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 108 – Mavericks 118. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 4-9 at home and the Heat are 4-5 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Mavericks and 7-3 for the Heat (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Heat W1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Heat, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 118 Heat, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.1 vs +3.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (119.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIADAL
Top performers
Heat
Kel'el WareC · #922pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #29assistsKel'el WareC · #910reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3222pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #913assists
Anthony DavisF · #2317reboundsRecent form
MIADAL
DAL
Team comparison
| MIA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 14-7 | Record | 7-15 |
| 119.3 | Points scored / game | 112.2 |
| 115.4 | Points allowed / game | 115.8 |
| +3.4 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4-5 road | Home / road record | 4-9 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.