Mavericks vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, November 24
At a glance
The Miami Heat (11-6) host the Dallas Mavericks (5-13) on Monday, November 24 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 102 – Heat 106. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 7-1 at home and the Mavericks are 1-4 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Heat and 3-7 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Heat W4, Mavericks L1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Heat dominate this matchup. The model projects Heat 118 – 111 Mavericks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+3.2 vs -3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALMIA
Top performers
Mavericks
P.J. WashingtonF · #2527pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assists
Daniel GaffordF · #2111reboundsHeat
Tyler HerroG · #1124pts / game
Pelle LarssonG · #96assists
Kel'el WareC · #918reboundsRecent form
DALMIA
DAL
Team comparison
| DAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-13 | Record | 11-6 |
| 111.6 | Points scored / game | 119.0 |
| 115.8 | Points allowed / game | 115.2 |
| -3.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.2 |
| L1 | Current streak | W4 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 1-4 road | Home / road record | 7-1 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.