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Hornets vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 4

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
61% win CHAwin NO 39%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin3.5
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-6) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-4) on Tuesday, November 4 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Hornets 112 – Pelicans 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hornets a 61% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-6 for the Pelicans and 3-4 for the Hornets (current streaks: Pelicans L6, Hornets W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 113 – 116 Hornets, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-10.5 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -10.5 / CHA -4.7 per game
-5.8
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-3.5

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
14%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Hornets win by 10+
30%

Stat comparison Current season

CHANO
111.2
Points scored / game
109.1
116.7
Points allowed / game
121.4
41.7 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
30.6 %
3-point %
29.0 %
43.2
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
85.2 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
47.4
Rebounds / game
44.3
20.6
Assists / game
23.5
6.8
Steals / game
12.3
5.2
Blocks / game
4.8
19.0
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Hornets
Miles BridgesF · #2222pts / game
Collin SextonG · #105assists
Kon KnueppelG · #712rebounds
Pelicans
Trey Murphy IIIF · #2521pts / game
Derik QueenC · #227assists
Derik QueenC · #228rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHA
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

CHANO
3-4Record0-6
111.2Points scored / game109.1
116.7Points allowed / game121.4
-4.7Adjusted margin / game-10.5
W1Current streakL6
3-4Last 10 games0-6
1-2 roadHome / road record0-2 home
19-63 (-9.1)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.