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Heat vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, November 2

Finalcrypto.com Arena · FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
3-3 · away
Final score
120-130
Projected: 114-115
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
5-2 · home
50% win MIAwin LAL 50%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin0.1
Projected total227
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-2) host the Miami Heat (3-2) on Sunday, November 2 at 9:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. Final score: Heat 120 – Lakers 130. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Lakers a 50% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Lakers are 1-2 at home and the Heat are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-2 for the Lakers and 3-2 for the Heat (current streaks: Lakers W2, Heat L1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Lakers 115 – 114 Heat, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +1.0 / MIA +3.2 per game
-2.2
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Lakers
+0.1

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Heat win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

MIALAL
115.0
Points scored / game
114.8
111.2
Points allowed / game
113.6
45.3 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
31.7 %
3-point %
39.2 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
71.7 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
42.8
Rebounds / game
38.0
27.0
Assists / game
24.0
8.4
Steals / game
10.8
5.4
Blocks / game
5.8
14.2
Turnovers / game
16.6

Top performers

Heat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #2431pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #28assists
Andrew WigginsF · #229rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7729pts / game
Austin ReavesG · #1511assists
Luka DoncicG · #7711rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIA
No games played yet.
LAL
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

LAL lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MIALAL
3-2Record4-2
115.0Points scored / game114.8
111.2Points allowed / game113.6
+3.2Adjusted margin / game+1.0
L1Current streakW2
3-2Last 10 games4-2
1-2 roadHome / road record1-2 home
37-45 (+0.6)Last season50-32 (+1.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.