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Celtics vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, October 27

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBC Sports BO, NBA League Pass
76% win BOSwin NO 24%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin8.8
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-2) host the Boston Celtics (0-3) on Monday, October 27 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Celtics 122 – Pelicans 90. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 76% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pelicans are 0-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-2 for the Pelicans and 0-3 for the Celtics (current streaks: Pelicans L2, Celtics L3).

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Pelicans 108 – 117 Celtics, a margin of about 8.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.5 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' offense (114.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -7.5 / BOS +5.2 per game
-12.7
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-8.8

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Celtics win by 10+
46%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSNO
114.6
Points scored / game
111.1
108.5
Points allowed / game
119.9
46.5 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
38.6 %
3-point %
29.0 %
41.5
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
76.0 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.3
27.8
Assists / game
23.5
9.0
Steals / game
12.3
3.8
Blocks / game
4.8
15.5
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Celtics
Anfernee SimonsG · #525pts / game
Payton PritchardG · #118assists
Neemias QuetaC · #8811rebounds
Pelicans
Jordan PooleG · #322pts / game
Trey Murphy IIIF · #255assists
Yves MissiC · #217rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
BOS
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

BOS lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

BOSNO
0-3Record0-2
114.6Points scored / game111.1
108.5Points allowed / game119.9
+5.2Adjusted margin / game-7.5
L3Current streakL2
0-3Last 10 games0-2
0-2 roadHome / road record0-1 home
61-21 (+9.1)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.