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Zalgiris vs Besiktas prediction EuroLeague · Friday, November 6

Fri, Nov 6 · 12:00 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
50% win ZALwin BJK 50%
FavoriteBJK
Projected margin0.1
Projected total172
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Besiktas Istanbul (3-5) host Zalgiris Kaunas (4-4) on Friday, November 6 at 12:00 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Besiktas Istanbul a 50% chance to win and projects a 86-87 score (Zalgiris – Besiktas), about 172 total points. This season, Besiktas Istanbul are 1-3 at home and Zalgiris Kaunas are 3-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Besiktas Istanbul and 4-4 for Zalgiris Kaunas (current streaks: Besiktas L2, Zalgiris W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 34% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Besiktas 87 – 86 Zalgiris, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of Besiktas and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Zalgiris needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Zalgiris' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Besiktas
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BJK -1.0 / ZAL +2.2 per game
-3.1
Home-court advantageBesiktas at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Besiktas
+0.1

Scenarios

Besiktas win by 10+
19%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Zalgiris win by 10+
19%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ZALBJK
86.4
Points scored / game
86.2
83.8
Points allowed / game
87.3
2.2
Adjusted margin / game
-1.0
50 %
Win %
38 %
1
Home wins
1
3
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ZAL
WVirtus Bologna91-74WLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne105-85LAnadolu Efes Istanbul70-85LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul80-99WFC Barcelona88-81
BJK
LOlympiacos Piraeus73-81LAnadolu Efes Istanbul80-89WFC Bayern Munich95-87LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv82-100WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84

Team comparison

ZALBJK
4-4Record3-5
86.4Points scored / game86.2
83.8Points allowed / game87.3
+2.2Adjusted margin / game-1.0
W2Current streakL2
4-4Last 10 games3-5
3-2 roadHome / road record1-3 home
24-18 (+3.8)Last season–

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.