Baskonia vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, November 5
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-2) host Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) on Thursday, November 5 at 1:00 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 87% chance to win and projects a 78-91 score (Baskonia – Fenerbahce), about 169 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-2 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (current streaks: Fenerbahce L1, Baskonia L5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
Fenerbahce starts with a clear edge. The model projects Fenerbahce 91 – 78 Baskonia, a margin of about 12.9 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+3.2 vs -6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Baskonia's offense (86.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (77.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
KBAFBT
Recent form
KBA
86-104L
79-85L
78-86L
79-93L
84-92FBT
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80L74-92Team comparison
| KBA | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 6-2 |
| 86.0 | Points scored / game | 81.1 |
| 93.6 | Points allowed / game | 77.4 |
| -6.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.2 |
| L5 | Current streak | L1 |
| 1-7 | Last 10 games | 6-2 |
| 0-3 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 13-25 (-4.7) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.