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Besiktas vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 3:30 PM ETPALADOZZA
46% win BJKwin VIR 54%
FavoriteVIR
Projected margin1.2
Projected total172
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Virtus Bologna (4-4) host Besiktas Istanbul (3-5) on Friday, October 30 at 3:30 PM ET at PALADOZZA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Virtus Bologna a 54% chance to win and projects a 85-87 score (Besiktas – Virtus Bologna), about 172 total points. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-1 at home and Besiktas Istanbul are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Virtus Bologna and 3-5 for Besiktas Istanbul (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L2, Besiktas L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Virtus Bologna 87 – 85 Besiktas, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of Virtus Bologna and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Besiktas needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Virtus Bologna
Team strength (adjusted point differential)VIR -3.0 / BJK -1.0 per game
-2.0
Home-court advantageVirtus Bologna at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Virtus Bologna
+1.2

Scenarios

Virtus Bologna win by 10+
22%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Besiktas win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BJKVIR
86.2
Points scored / game
83.4
87.3
Points allowed / game
86.9
-1.0
Adjusted margin / game
-3.0
38 %
Win %
50 %
1
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BJK
LOlympiacos Piraeus73-81LAnadolu Efes Istanbul80-89WFC Bayern Munich95-87LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv82-100WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84
VIR
LZalgiris Kaunas74-91LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87

Team comparison

BJKVIR
3-5Record4-4
86.2Points scored / game83.4
87.3Points allowed / game86.9
-1.0Adjusted margin / game-3.0
L2Current streakL2
3-5Last 10 games4-4
2-2 roadHome / road record2-1 home
–Last season14-24 (-4.6)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.