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Virtus Bologna vs Besiktas prediction EuroLeague · Friday, April 16

Fri, Apr 16 · 1:00 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
33% win VIRwin BJK 67%
FavoriteBJK
Projected margin5.2
Projected total172
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Besiktas Istanbul (3-5) host Virtus Bologna (4-4) on Friday, April 16 at 1:00 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Besiktas Istanbul a 67% chance to win and projects a 83-89 score (Virtus Bologna – Besiktas), about 172 total points. This season, Besiktas Istanbul are 1-3 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Besiktas Istanbul and 4-4 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Besiktas L2, Virtus Bologna L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Besiktas, but Virtus Bologna has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Besiktas 89 – 83 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of Besiktas and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Besiktas
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BJK -1.0 / VIR -3.0 per game
+2.0
Home-court advantageBesiktas at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Besiktas
+5.2

Scenarios

Besiktas win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Virtus Bologna win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VIRBJK
83.4
Points scored / game
86.2
86.9
Points allowed / game
87.3
-3.0
Adjusted margin / game
-1.0
50 %
Win %
38 %
2
Home wins
1
2
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VIR
LZalgiris Kaunas74-91LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87
BJK
LOlympiacos Piraeus73-81LAnadolu Efes Istanbul80-89WFC Bayern Munich95-87LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv82-100WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84

Team comparison

VIRBJK
4-4Record3-5
83.4Points scored / game86.2
86.9Points allowed / game87.3
-3.0Adjusted margin / game-1.0
L2Current streakL2
4-4Last 10 games3-5
2-3 roadHome / road record1-3 home
14-24 (-4.6)Last season–

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.