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Panathinaikos vs Anadolu Efes prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 1:30 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
72% win PAOwin EFS 28%
FavoritePAO
Projected margin6.7
Projected total167
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) host Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (7-1) on Friday, October 30 at 1:30 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens a 72% chance to win and projects a 87-80 score (Panathinaikos – Anadolu Efes), about 167 total points. This season, Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 2-1 at home and Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens are 1-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul and 7-1 for Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (current streaks: Anadolu Efes L1, Panathinaikos W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

Panathinaikos starts with a clear edge. The model projects Anadolu Efes 80 – 87 Panathinaikos, a margin of about 6.7 points in favor of Panathinaikos and a total around 167 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-3.9 vs +6.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Panathinaikos' offense (86.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Panathinaikos' defense allows clearly fewer points (79.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Anadolu Efes
Team strength (adjusted point differential)EFS -3.9 / PAO +6.1 per game
-9.9
Home-court advantageAnadolu Efes at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Anadolu Efes
-6.7

Scenarios

Anadolu Efes win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Panathinaikos win by 10+
39%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

PAOEFS
86.6
Points scored / game
81.9
79.5
Points allowed / game
86.4
6.1
Adjusted margin / game
-3.9
88 %
Win %
38 %
6
Home wins
2
1
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
PAO
WArmani Olimpia Milan80-75WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz85-79LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-91WPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade72-55WFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul92-74
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89

Team comparison

PAOEFS
7-1Record3-5
86.6Points scored / game81.9
79.5Points allowed / game86.4
+6.1Adjusted margin / game-3.9
W2Current streakL1
7-1Last 10 games3-5
1-0 roadHome / road record2-1 home
25-19 (+1.7)Last season12-26 (-4.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.