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Valencia vs FC Barcelona prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 3:30 PM ETPALAU BLAUGRANA
52% win VBCwin BAR 48%
FavoriteVBC
Projected margin0.5
Projected total177
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

FC Barcelona (5-3) host Valencia Basket (6-2) on Friday, October 30 at 3:30 PM ET at PALAU BLAUGRANA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Valencia Basket a 52% chance to win and projects a 89-88 score (Valencia – FC Barcelona), about 177 total points. This season, FC Barcelona are 2-2 at home and Valencia Basket are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-3 for FC Barcelona and 6-2 for Valencia Basket (current streaks: FC Barcelona W2, Valencia W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 34% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects FC Barcelona 88 – 89 Valencia, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of Valencia and a total around 177 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • FC Barcelona needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Valencia's offense (93.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge FC Barcelona
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BAR +1.2 / VBC +4.9 per game
-3.7
Home-court advantageFC Barcelona at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor FC Barcelona
-0.5

Scenarios

FC Barcelona win by 10+
18%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Valencia win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VBCBAR
93.9
Points scored / game
87.1
88.1
Points allowed / game
85.7
4.9
Adjusted margin / game
1.2
75 %
Win %
63 %
3
Home wins
2
3
Road wins
3

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VBC
WFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul86-78WParis Basketball104-93LMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv88-91LOlympiacos Piraeus97-102WHapoel IBI Tel Aviv93-82
BAR
WFC Bayern Munich88-84WArmani Olimpia Milan89-81LOlympiacos Piraeus100-105WMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv90-87LZalgiris Kaunas81-88

Team comparison

VBCBAR
6-2Record5-3
93.9Points scored / game87.1
88.1Points allowed / game85.7
+4.9Adjusted margin / game+1.2
W2Current streakW2
6-2Last 10 games5-3
3-0 roadHome / road record2-2 home
28-16 (+4.1)Last season22-18 (+0.8)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.