Olympiacos vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, April 6
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) host Olympiacos Piraeus (6-2) on Tuesday, April 6 at 1:45 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Olympiacos Piraeus a 54% chance to win and projects a 84-83 score (Olympiacos – Fenerbahce), about 167 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Olympiacos Piraeus are 5-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 6-2 for Olympiacos Piraeus (current streaks: Fenerbahce L2, Olympiacos W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Fenerbahce 83 – 84 Olympiacos, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of Olympiacos and a total around 167 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.0 vs +6.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Fenerbahce needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Olympiacos' offense (90.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
OLYFBT
Recent form
OLY
81-73L61-64W
105-100W
102-97W
89-66FBT
76-95L78-86W64-61W
74-65W
99-80Team comparison
| OLY | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-3 |
| 90.9 | Points scored / game | 80.8 |
| 83.5 | Points allowed / game | 78.4 |
| +6.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-2 | Last 10 games | 6-3 |
| 5-1 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 31-12 (+8.0) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.