Valencia vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, April 6
At a glance
Virtus Bologna (4-4) host Valencia Basket (6-2) on Tuesday, April 6 at 2:30 PM ET at VIRTUS ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Valencia Basket a 66% chance to win and projects a 90-86 score (Valencia – Virtus Bologna), about 176 total points. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-1 at home and Valencia Basket are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Virtus Bologna and 6-2 for Valencia Basket (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L2, Valencia W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to Valencia, but Virtus Bologna has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Virtus Bologna 86 – 90 Valencia, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of Valencia and a total around 176 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (-3.0 vs +4.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Valencia's offense (93.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
VBCVIR
Recent form
VBC
86-78W
104-93L
88-91L
97-102W
93-82VIR
74-91L81-90W
86-78W96-94W
94-87Team comparison
| VBC | VIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 93.9 | Points scored / game | 83.4 |
| 88.1 | Points allowed / game | 86.9 |
| +4.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-2 | Last 10 games | 4-4 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 28-16 (+4.1) | Last season | 14-24 (-4.6) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.