Virtus Bologna vs Valencia prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, November 19
At a glance
Valencia Basket (6-2) host Virtus Bologna (4-4) on Thursday, November 19 at 3:00 PM ET at ROIG ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Valencia Basket a 83% chance to win and projects a 83-94 score (Virtus Bologna – Valencia), about 176 total points. This season, Valencia Basket are 3-2 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-2 for Valencia Basket and 4-4 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Valencia W2, Virtus Bologna L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, Valencia dominates this matchup. The model projects Valencia 94 – 83 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of Valencia and a total around 176 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (+4.9 vs -3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Valencia's offense (93.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
VIRVBC
Recent form
VIR
74-91L
81-90W
86-78W
96-94W
94-87VBC
86-78W104-93L
88-91L
97-102W93-82Team comparison
| VIR | VBC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 6-2 |
| 83.4 | Points scored / game | 93.9 |
| 86.9 | Points allowed / game | 88.1 |
| -3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +4.9 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
| 4-4 | Last 10 games | 6-2 |
| 2-3 road | Home / road record | 3-2 home |
| 14-24 (-4.6) | Last season | 28-16 (+4.1) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.