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Bayern Munich vs Baskonia prediction EuroLeague · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 2:30 PM ETBUESA ARENA
43% win BAYwin KBA 57%
FavoriteKBA
Projected margin1.9
Projected total176
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) host FC Bayern Munich (2-7) on Friday, April 2 at 2:30 PM ET at BUESA ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz a 57% chance to win and projects a 87-89 score (Bayern Munich – Baskonia), about 176 total points. This season, Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 1-4 at home and FC Bayern Munich are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and 2-7 for FC Bayern Munich (current streaks: Baskonia L5, Bayern Munich L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Baskonia 89 – 87 Bayern Munich, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of Baskonia and a total around 176 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Bayern Munich needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Bayern Munich's defense allows clearly fewer points (89.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Baskonia
Team strength (adjusted point differential)KBA -6.5 / BAY -5.2 per game
-1.3
Home-court advantageBaskonia at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Baskonia
+1.9

Scenarios

Baskonia win by 10+
24%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Bayern Munich win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BAYKBA
83.3
Points scored / game
86.0
89.4
Points allowed / game
93.6
-5.2
Adjusted margin / game
-6.5
22 %
Win %
13 %
0
Home wins
1
2
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BAY
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade73-103LFC Barcelona84-88LDubai Basketball91-107LBesiktas Istanbul87-95WAnadolu Efes Istanbul101-93
KBA
LReal Madrid86-104LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens79-85LVirtus Bologna78-86LDubai Basketball79-93LBesiktas Istanbul84-92

Team comparison

BAYKBA
2-7Record1-7
83.3Points scored / game86.0
89.4Points allowed / game93.6
-5.2Adjusted margin / game-6.5
L4Current streakL5
2-7Last 10 games1-7
2-3 roadHome / road record1-4 home
17-21 (-2.9)Last season13-25 (-4.7)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.