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Baskonia vs Bayern Munich prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, November 19

Thu, Nov 19 · 2:00 PM ETSAP GARDEN
35% win KBAwin BAY 65%
FavoriteBAY
Projected margin4.5
Projected total176
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

FC Bayern Munich (2-7) host Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) on Thursday, November 19 at 2:00 PM ET at SAP GARDEN in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives FC Bayern Munich a 65% chance to win and projects a 86-90 score (Baskonia – Bayern Munich), about 176 total points. This season, FC Bayern Munich are 0-4 at home and Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-7 for FC Bayern Munich and 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (current streaks: Bayern Munich L4, Baskonia L5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Bayern Munich is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bayern Munich 90 – 86 Baskonia, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of Bayern Munich and a total around 176 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Bayern Munich's defense allows clearly fewer points (89.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bayern Munich
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BAY -5.2 / KBA -6.5 per game
+1.3
Home-court advantageBayern Munich at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Bayern Munich
+4.5

Scenarios

Bayern Munich win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Baskonia win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

KBABAY
86.0
Points scored / game
83.3
93.6
Points allowed / game
89.4
-6.5
Adjusted margin / game
-5.2
13 %
Win %
22 %
1
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
KBA
LReal Madrid86-104LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens79-85LVirtus Bologna78-86LDubai Basketball79-93LBesiktas Istanbul84-92
BAY
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade73-103LFC Barcelona84-88LDubai Basketball91-107LBesiktas Istanbul87-95WAnadolu Efes Istanbul101-93

Team comparison

KBABAY
1-7Record2-7
86.0Points scored / game83.3
93.6Points allowed / game89.4
-6.5Adjusted margin / game-5.2
L5Current streakL4
1-7Last 10 games2-7
0-3 roadHome / road record0-4 home
13-25 (-4.7)Last season17-21 (-2.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.