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Maccabi vs Milan prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 26

Fri, Mar 26 · 3:30 PM ETUNIPOL FORUM
37% win MTAwin MIL 63%
FavoriteMIL
Projected margin3.7
Projected total178
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) host Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (2-7) on Friday, March 26 at 3:30 PM ET at UNIPOL FORUM in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Armani Olimpia Milan a 63% chance to win and projects a 87-91 score (Maccabi – Milan), about 178 total points. This season, Armani Olimpia Milan are 1-3 at home and Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv are 1-4 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan and 2-7 for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (current streaks: Milan L6, Maccabi L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Milan is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Milan 91 – 87 Maccabi, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of Milan and a total around 178 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Maccabi needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Maccabi's offense (88.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Milan's defense allows clearly fewer points (89.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Milan
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -4.1 / MTA -4.6 per game
+0.5
Home-court advantageMilan at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Milan
+3.7

Scenarios

Milan win by 10+
29%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
Maccabi win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

MTAMIL
88.3
Points scored / game
84.3
93.7
Points allowed / game
89.1
-4.6
Adjusted margin / game
-4.1
22 %
Win %
13 %
1
Home wins
1
1
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
MTA
LParis Basketball94-99LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade78-100LReal Madrid99-113WValencia Basket91-88LFC Barcelona87-90
MIL
LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens75-80LFC Barcelona81-89LDubai Basketball97-101LReal Madrid89-98LMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv79-97

Team comparison

MTAMIL
2-7Record1-7
88.3Points scored / game84.3
93.7Points allowed / game89.1
-4.6Adjusted margin / game-4.1
L3Current streakL6
2-7Last 10 games1-7
1-4 roadHome / road record1-3 home
18-20 (-2.5)Last season17-21 (-1.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.