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Baskonia vs Anadolu Efes prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 1:30 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
31% win KBAwin EFS 69%
FavoriteEFS
Projected margin5.8
Projected total174
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) host Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) on Thursday, March 25 at 1:30 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Anadolu Efes Istanbul a 69% chance to win and projects a 84-90 score (Baskonia – Anadolu Efes), about 174 total points. This season, Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 2-1 at home and Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul and 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (current streaks: Anadolu Efes L1, Baskonia L5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Anadolu Efes, but Baskonia has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Anadolu Efes 90 – 84 Baskonia, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of Anadolu Efes and a total around 174 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Baskonia's offense (86.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Anadolu Efes' defense allows clearly fewer points (86.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Anadolu Efes
Team strength (adjusted point differential)EFS -3.9 / KBA -6.5 per game
+2.6
Home-court advantageAnadolu Efes at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Anadolu Efes
+5.8

Scenarios

Anadolu Efes win by 10+
36%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Baskonia win by 10+
8%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

KBAEFS
86.0
Points scored / game
81.9
93.6
Points allowed / game
86.4
-6.5
Adjusted margin / game
-3.9
13 %
Win %
38 %
1
Home wins
2
0
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
KBA
LReal Madrid86-104LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens79-85LVirtus Bologna78-86LDubai Basketball79-93LBesiktas Istanbul84-92
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89

Team comparison

KBAEFS
1-7Record3-5
86.0Points scored / game81.9
93.6Points allowed / game86.4
-6.5Adjusted margin / game-3.9
L5Current streakL1
1-7Last 10 games3-5
0-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
13-25 (-4.7)Last season12-26 (-4.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.