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Virtus Bologna vs Bayern Munich prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, October 8

FinalSAP GARDEN
39% win VIRwin BAY 61%
FavoriteBAY
Projected margin3.2
Projected total168
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

FC Bayern Munich (1-2) host Virtus Bologna (1-2) on Thursday, October 8 at 2:00 PM ET at SAP GARDEN in EuroLeague action. Final score: Virtus Bologna 94 – Bayern Munich 87. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave FC Bayern Munich a 61% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, FC Bayern Munich are 0-1 at home and Virtus Bologna are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for FC Bayern Munich and 1-2 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Bayern Munich L2, Virtus Bologna W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Bayern Munich, but Virtus Bologna has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bayern Munich 85 – 82 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of Bayern Munich and a total around 168 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bayern Munich
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BAY -3.6 / VIR -3.6 per game
-0.0
Home-court advantageBayern Munich at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Bayern Munich
+3.2

Scenarios

Bayern Munich win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
Virtus Bologna win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VIRBAY
82.2
Points scored / game
81.1
86.4
Points allowed / game
85.4
-3.6
Adjusted margin / game
-3.6
33 %
Win %
33 %
1
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VIR
WOlympiacos Piraeus96-94LArmani Olimpia Milan85-87LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul68-78
BAY
LPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade84-86LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul76-100WHapoel IBI Tel Aviv86-84

Team comparison

VIRBAY
1-2Record1-2
82.2Points scored / game81.1
86.4Points allowed / game85.4
-3.6Adjusted margin / game-3.6
W1Current streakL2
1-2Last 10 games1-2
0-2 roadHome / road record0-1 home
14-24 (-4.6)Last season17-21 (-2.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.