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Olympiacos vs Crvena Zvezda prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 3:00 PM ETBELGRADE ARENA
46% win OLYwin CZV 54%
FavoriteCZV
Projected margin1.1
Projected total171
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade (6-3) host Olympiacos Piraeus (6-2) on Friday, March 19 at 3:00 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade a 54% chance to win and projects a 85-86 score (Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda), about 171 total points. This season, Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade are 4-2 at home and Olympiacos Piraeus are 5-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade and 6-2 for Olympiacos Piraeus (current streaks: Crvena Zvezda W2, Olympiacos W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Crvena Zvezda 86 – 85 Olympiacos, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of Crvena Zvezda and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Olympiacos needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Olympiacos' offense (90.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Crvena Zvezda
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CZV +4.3 / OLY +6.3 per game
-2.1
Home-court advantageCrvena Zvezda at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Crvena Zvezda
+1.1

Scenarios

Crvena Zvezda win by 10+
22%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Olympiacos win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

OLYCZV
90.9
Points scored / game
86.3
83.5
Points allowed / game
81.3
6.3
Adjusted margin / game
4.3
75 %
Win %
67 %
1
Home wins
4
5
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
OLY
WBesiktas Istanbul81-73LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul61-64WFC Barcelona105-100WValencia Basket102-97WAnadolu Efes Istanbul89-66
CZV
WFC Bayern Munich103-73WMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv100-78LPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade82-85WParis Basketball90-81WLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne84-82

Team comparison

OLYCZV
6-2Record6-3
90.9Points scored / game86.3
83.5Points allowed / game81.3
+6.3Adjusted margin / game+4.3
W1Current streakW2
6-2Last 10 games6-3
5-1 roadHome / road record4-2 home
31-12 (+8.0)Last season21-18 (+1.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.