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Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 1:00 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
30% win EFSwin BJK 70%
FavoriteBJK
Projected margin6.1
Projected total171
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Besiktas Istanbul (3-5) host Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) on Friday, March 19 at 1:00 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Besiktas Istanbul a 70% chance to win and projects a 82-89 score (Anadolu Efes – Besiktas), about 171 total points. This season, Besiktas Istanbul are 1-3 at home and Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 1-4 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Besiktas Istanbul and 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul (current streaks: Besiktas L2, Anadolu Efes L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Besiktas is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Besiktas 89 – 82 Anadolu Efes, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of Besiktas and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Besiktas' offense (86.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Besiktas
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BJK -1.0 / EFS -3.9 per game
+2.9
Home-court advantageBesiktas at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Besiktas
+6.1

Scenarios

Besiktas win by 10+
37%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Anadolu Efes win by 10+
8%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

EFSBJK
81.9
Points scored / game
86.2
86.4
Points allowed / game
87.3
-3.9
Adjusted margin / game
-1.0
38 %
Win %
38 %
2
Home wins
1
1
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89
BJK
LOlympiacos Piraeus73-81LAnadolu Efes Istanbul80-89WFC Bayern Munich95-87LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv82-100WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84

Team comparison

EFSBJK
3-5Record3-5
81.9Points scored / game86.2
86.4Points allowed / game87.3
-3.9Adjusted margin / game-1.0
L1Current streakL2
3-5Last 10 games3-5
1-4 roadHome / road record1-3 home
12-26 (-4.2)Last season–

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.