Paris vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, March 18
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) host Paris Basketball (3-6) on Thursday, March 18 at 1:45 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 75% chance to win and projects a 81-89 score (Paris – Fenerbahce), about 170 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Paris Basketball are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 3-6 for Paris Basketball (current streaks: Fenerbahce L2, Paris W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, Fenerbahce dominates this matchup. The model projects Fenerbahce 89 – 81 Paris, a margin of about 7.7 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 170 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.0 vs -2.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Paris needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Paris' offense (89.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
PBBFBT
Recent form
PBB
99-94W
99-93L
93-104L
81-90L
94-96FBT
76-95L78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80Team comparison
| PBB | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | Record | 6-3 |
| 89.1 | Points scored / game | 80.8 |
| 92.0 | Points allowed / game | 78.4 |
| -2.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 3-6 | Last 10 games | 6-3 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 15-23 (-0.9) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.