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Bayern Munich vs Partizan prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, March 18

Thu, Mar 18 · 3:45 PM ETBELGRADE ARENA
31% win BAYwin PAR 69%
FavoritePAR
Projected margin5.8
Projected total168
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (4-4) host FC Bayern Munich (2-7) on Thursday, March 18 at 3:45 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade a 69% chance to win and projects a 81-87 score (Bayern Munich – Partizan), about 168 total points. This season, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade are 2-1 at home and FC Bayern Munich are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade and 2-7 for FC Bayern Munich (current streaks: Partizan L1, Bayern Munich L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Partizan is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Partizan 87 – 81 Bayern Munich, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of Partizan and a total around 168 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Bayern Munich needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Bayern Munich's offense (83.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Partizan's defense allows clearly fewer points (83.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Partizan
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PAR -2.6 / BAY -5.2 per game
+2.6
Home-court advantagePartizan at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Partizan
+5.8

Scenarios

Partizan win by 10+
36%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Bayern Munich win by 10+
8%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BAYPAR
83.3
Points scored / game
79.9
89.4
Points allowed / game
83.0
-5.2
Adjusted margin / game
-2.6
22 %
Win %
50 %
0
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BAY
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade73-103LFC Barcelona84-88LDubai Basketball91-107LBesiktas Istanbul87-95WAnadolu Efes Istanbul101-93
PAR
LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne75-82WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade85-82LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul65-74LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens55-72LReal Madrid76-86

Team comparison

BAYPAR
2-7Record4-4
83.3Points scored / game79.9
89.4Points allowed / game83.0
-5.2Adjusted margin / game-2.6
L4Current streakL1
2-7Last 10 games4-4
2-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
17-21 (-2.9)Last season16-22 (-4.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.