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LDLC ASVEL vs Paris prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 7

FinalADIDAS ARENA
27% win ASVwin PBB 73%
FavoritePBB
Projected margin7.0
Projected total173
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Paris Basketball (1-2) host LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (1-2) on Wednesday, October 7 at 2:45 PM ET at ADIDAS ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: LDLC ASVEL 98 – Paris 96. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Paris Basketball a 73% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Paris Basketball are 1-1 at home and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for Paris Basketball and 1-2 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (current streaks: Paris W1, LDLC ASVEL L2).

The analysis Model

On paper, Paris dominates this matchup. The model projects Paris 90 – 83 LDLC ASVEL, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of Paris and a total around 173 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Paris' offense (86.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Paris
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PBB -2.7 / ASV -6.5 per game
+3.8
Home-court advantageParis at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Paris
+7.0

Scenarios

Paris win by 10+
40%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ASVPBB
80.8
Points scored / game
86.7
88.5
Points allowed / game
89.9
-6.5
Adjusted margin / game
-2.7
33 %
Win %
33 %
1
Home wins
1
0
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ASV
LValencia Basket92-105LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens79-102WMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv84-74
PBB
WZalgiris Kaunas82-78LPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade79-92LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens72-91

Team comparison

ASVPBB
1-2Record1-2
80.8Points scored / game86.7
88.5Points allowed / game89.9
-6.5Adjusted margin / game-2.7
L2Current streakW1
1-2Last 10 games1-2
0-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
8-30 (-7.3)Last season15-23 (-0.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.