Valencia vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 12
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) host Valencia Basket (6-2) on Friday, March 12 at 12:45 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 51% chance to win and projects a 85-86 score (Valencia – Fenerbahce), about 171 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Valencia Basket are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 6-2 for Valencia Basket (current streaks: Fenerbahce L2, Valencia W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 34% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Fenerbahce 86 – 85 Valencia, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- Valencia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Valencia's offense (93.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
VBCFBT
Recent form
VBC86-78W
104-93L
88-91L
97-102W
93-82FBT
76-95L78-86W64-61W
74-65W
99-80Team comparison
| VBC | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-3 |
| 93.9 | Points scored / game | 80.8 |
| 88.1 | Points allowed / game | 78.4 |
| +4.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-2 | Last 10 games | 6-3 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 28-16 (+4.1) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.