Milan vs Zalgiris prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 12
At a glance
Zalgiris Kaunas (4-4) host Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) on Friday, March 12 at 1:00 PM ET at ZALGIRIO ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Zalgiris Kaunas a 79% chance to win and projects a 81-91 score (Milan – Zalgiris), about 172 total points. This season, Zalgiris Kaunas are 1-2 at home and Armani Olimpia Milan are 0-4 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Zalgiris Kaunas and 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan (current streaks: Zalgiris W2, Milan L6). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, Zalgiris dominates this matchup. The model projects Zalgiris 91 – 81 Milan, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of Zalgiris and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.2 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Milan needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Zalgiris' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
MILZAL
Recent form
MIL
75-80L
81-89L
97-101L
89-98L
79-97ZAL
91-74W
105-85L
70-85L
80-99W88-81Team comparison
| MIL | ZAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 4-4 |
| 84.3 | Points scored / game | 86.4 |
| 89.1 | Points allowed / game | 83.8 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.2 |
| L6 | Current streak | W2 |
| 1-7 | Last 10 games | 4-4 |
| 0-4 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 17-21 (-1.2) | Last season | 24-18 (+3.8) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.