Zalgiris vs Milan prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, November 12
At a glance
Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) host Zalgiris Kaunas (4-4) on Thursday, November 12 at 2:30 PM ET at UNIPOL FORUM in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Zalgiris Kaunas a 60% chance to win and projects a 87-84 score (Zalgiris – Milan), about 172 total points. This season, Armani Olimpia Milan are 1-3 at home and Zalgiris Kaunas are 3-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan and 4-4 for Zalgiris Kaunas (current streaks: Milan L6, Zalgiris W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Zalgiris is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Milan 84 – 87 Zalgiris, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of Zalgiris and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +2.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Milan needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Zalgiris' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
ZALMIL
Recent form
ZAL
91-74W
105-85L
70-85L
80-99W
88-81MIL
75-80L81-89L
97-101L
89-98L
79-97Team comparison
| ZAL | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 1-7 |
| 86.4 | Points scored / game | 84.3 |
| 83.8 | Points allowed / game | 89.1 |
| +2.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L6 |
| 4-4 | Last 10 games | 1-7 |
| 3-2 road | Home / road record | 1-3 home |
| 24-18 (+3.8) | Last season | 17-21 (-1.2) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.