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LDLC ASVEL vs Maccabi prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 2:05 PM ETALEKSANDAR NIKOLIC HALL
34% win ASVwin MTA 66%
FavoriteMTA
Projected margin4.8
Projected total178
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (2-7) host LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (3-5) on Thursday, March 11 at 2:05 PM ET at ALEKSANDAR NIKOLIC HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv a 66% chance to win and projects a 86-91 score (LDLC ASVEL – Maccabi), about 178 total points. This season, Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv are 1-3 at home and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-7 for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv and 3-5 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (current streaks: Maccabi L3, LDLC ASVEL W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Maccabi, but LDLC ASVEL has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Maccabi 91 – 86 LDLC ASVEL, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of Maccabi and a total around 178 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Maccabi's offense (88.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • LDLC ASVEL's defense allows clearly fewer points (90.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Maccabi
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MTA -4.6 / ASV -6.2 per game
+1.6
Home-court advantageMaccabi at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Maccabi
+4.8

Scenarios

Maccabi win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ASVMTA
83.0
Points scored / game
88.3
90.3
Points allowed / game
93.7
-6.2
Adjusted margin / game
-4.6
38 %
Win %
22 %
2
Home wins
1
1
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ASV
WPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade82-75LZalgiris Kaunas85-105LReal Madrid92-111LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade82-84WParis Basketball98-96
MTA
LParis Basketball94-99LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade78-100LReal Madrid99-113WValencia Basket91-88LFC Barcelona87-90

Team comparison

ASVMTA
3-5Record2-7
83.0Points scored / game88.3
90.3Points allowed / game93.7
-6.2Adjusted margin / game-4.6
W1Current streakL3
3-5Last 10 games2-7
1-3 roadHome / road record1-3 home
8-30 (-7.3)Last season18-20 (-2.5)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.