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Maccabi vs Panathinaikos prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 2

FinalTELEKOM CENTER ATHENS
15% win MTAwin PAO 85%
FavoritePAO
Projected margin11.8
Projected total177
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (2-0) host Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (0-2) on Friday, October 2 at 2:15 PM ET at TELEKOM CENTER ATHENS in EuroLeague action. Final score: Maccabi 67 – Panathinaikos 90. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens a 85% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens are 2-0 at home and Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-0 for Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens and 0-2 for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (current streaks: Panathinaikos W2, Maccabi L2).

The analysis Model

Panathinaikos starts with a clear edge. The model projects Panathinaikos 94 – 83 Maccabi, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of Panathinaikos and a total around 177 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (+4.7 vs -3.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Maccabi needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Panathinaikos' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Panathinaikos
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PAO +4.7 / MTA -3.9 per game
+8.6
Home-court advantagePanathinaikos at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Panathinaikos
+11.8

Scenarios

Panathinaikos win by 10+
56%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
20%
Maccabi win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

MTAPAO
88.8
Points scored / game
88.6
93.4
Points allowed / game
83.1
-3.9
Adjusted margin / game
4.7
0 %
Win %
100 %
0
Home wins
2
0
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
MTA
LBesiktas Istanbul93-109LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne74-84
PAO
WLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne102-79WParis Basketball91-72

Team comparison

MTAPAO
0-2Record2-0
88.8Points scored / game88.6
93.4Points allowed / game83.1
-3.9Adjusted margin / game+4.7
L2Current streakW2
0-2Last 10 games2-0
0-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
18-20 (-2.5)Last season25-19 (+1.7)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.