Fenerbahce vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, March 9
At a glance
Virtus Bologna (4-4) host Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) on Tuesday, March 9 at 2:30 PM ET at VIRTUS ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 56% chance to win and projects a 83-81 score (Fenerbahce – Virtus Bologna), about 165 total points. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-1 at home and Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Virtus Bologna and 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L2, Fenerbahce L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Virtus Bologna 81 – 83 Fenerbahce, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 165 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.0 vs +2.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
FBTVIR
Recent form
FBT
76-95L
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80VIR74-91L
81-90W
86-78W
96-94W
94-87Team comparison
| FBT | VIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 80.8 | Points scored / game | 83.4 |
| 78.4 | Points allowed / game | 86.9 |
| +2.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.0 |
| L2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-3 | Last 10 games | 4-4 |
| 1-3 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 27-16 (+1.4) | Last season | 14-24 (-4.6) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.