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LDLC ASVEL vs Bayern Munich prediction EuroLeague · Friday, March 5

Fri, Mar 5 · 2:00 PM ETSAP GARDEN
36% win ASVwin BAY 64%
FavoriteBAY
Projected margin4.2
Projected total173
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

FC Bayern Munich (2-7) host LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (3-5) on Friday, March 5 at 2:00 PM ET at SAP GARDEN in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives FC Bayern Munich a 64% chance to win and projects a 84-89 score (LDLC ASVEL – Bayern Munich), about 173 total points. This season, FC Bayern Munich are 0-4 at home and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-7 for FC Bayern Munich and 3-5 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (current streaks: Bayern Munich L4, LDLC ASVEL W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Bayern Munich is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bayern Munich 89 – 84 LDLC ASVEL, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of Bayern Munich and a total around 173 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bayern Munich
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BAY -5.2 / ASV -6.2 per game
+1.0
Home-court advantageBayern Munich at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Bayern Munich
+4.2

Scenarios

Bayern Munich win by 10+
31%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
11%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ASVBAY
83.0
Points scored / game
83.3
90.3
Points allowed / game
89.4
-6.2
Adjusted margin / game
-5.2
38 %
Win %
22 %
2
Home wins
0
1
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ASV
WPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade82-75LZalgiris Kaunas85-105LReal Madrid92-111LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade82-84WParis Basketball98-96
BAY
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade73-103LFC Barcelona84-88LDubai Basketball91-107LBesiktas Istanbul87-95WAnadolu Efes Istanbul101-93

Team comparison

ASVBAY
3-5Record2-7
83.0Points scored / game83.3
90.3Points allowed / game89.4
-6.2Adjusted margin / game-5.2
W1Current streakL4
3-5Last 10 games2-7
1-3 roadHome / road record0-4 home
8-30 (-7.3)Last season17-21 (-2.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.