Milan vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Friday, February 12
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) host Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) on Friday, February 12 at 12:45 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 79% chance to win and projects a 78-88 score (Milan – Fenerbahce), about 166 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Armani Olimpia Milan are 0-4 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan (current streaks: Fenerbahce L2, Milan L6). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, Fenerbahce dominates this matchup. The model projects Fenerbahce 88 – 78 Milan, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 166 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.0 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Milan needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Milan's offense (84.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
MILFBT
Recent form
MIL
75-80L
81-89L
97-101L
89-98L
79-97FBT76-95L
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80Team comparison
| MIL | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 6-3 |
| 84.3 | Points scored / game | 80.8 |
| 89.1 | Points allowed / game | 78.4 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| L6 | Current streak | L2 |
| 1-7 | Last 10 games | 6-3 |
| 0-4 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 17-21 (-1.2) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.