Fenerbahce vs Milan prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, November 19
At a glance
Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) host Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-2) on Thursday, November 19 at 2:30 PM ET at UNIPOL FORUM in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 64% chance to win and projects a 85-81 score (Fenerbahce – Milan), about 166 total points. This season, Armani Olimpia Milan are 1-3 at home and Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan and 6-2 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (current streaks: Milan L6, Fenerbahce L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to Fenerbahce, but Milan has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Milan 81 – 85 Fenerbahce, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 166 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +3.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Milan needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Milan's offense (84.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (77.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
FBTMIL
Recent form
FBT
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80L
74-92MIL75-80L
81-89L
97-101L
89-98L
79-97Team comparison
| FBT | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 1-7 |
| 81.1 | Points scored / game | 84.3 |
| 77.4 | Points allowed / game | 89.1 |
| +3.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L6 |
| 6-2 | Last 10 games | 1-7 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 1-3 home |
| 27-16 (+1.4) | Last season | 17-21 (-1.2) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.