Milan vs Baskonia prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 2
At a glance
Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (0-2) host Armani Olimpia Milan (1-1) on Friday, October 2 at 2:30 PM ET at BUESA ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Milan 76 – Baskonia 86. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Armani Olimpia Milan a 55% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 0-1 at home and Armani Olimpia Milan are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-2 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and 1-1 for Armani Olimpia Milan (current streaks: Baskonia L2, Milan W1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Baskonia 89 – 90 Milan, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of Milan and a total around 179 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-6.6 vs -2.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Baskonia's offense (88.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Milan's defense allows clearly fewer points (87.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
MILKBARecent form
MIL
87-85L
76-92KBA
88-111L
89-106Team comparison
| MIL | KBA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-2 |
| 85.1 | Points scored / game | 88.4 |
| 87.5 | Points allowed / game | 96.2 |
| -2.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 1-1 | Last 10 games | 0-2 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 17-21 (-1.2) | Last season | 13-25 (-4.7) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.