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Virtus Bologna vs Dubai prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, February 4

Thu, Feb 4 · 11:00 AM ETCOCA-COLA ARENA
28% win VIRwin DUB 72%
FavoriteDUB
Projected margin6.6
Projected total172
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Dubai Basketball (5-3) host Virtus Bologna (4-4) on Thursday, February 4 at 11:00 AM ET at COCA-COLA ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Dubai Basketball a 72% chance to win and projects a 83-89 score (Virtus Bologna – Dubai), about 172 total points. This season, Dubai Basketball are 2-2 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-3 for Dubai Basketball and 4-4 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Dubai L1, Virtus Bologna L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Dubai, but Virtus Bologna has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Dubai 89 – 83 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of Dubai and a total around 172 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Dubai's offense (87.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Dubai
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DUB +0.4 / VIR -3.0 per game
+3.4
Home-court advantageDubai at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Dubai
+6.6

Scenarios

Dubai win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Virtus Bologna win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VIRDUB
83.4
Points scored / game
87.2
86.9
Points allowed / game
86.7
-3.0
Adjusted margin / game
0.4
50 %
Win %
63 %
2
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
3

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VIR
LZalgiris Kaunas74-91LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87
DUB
LParis Basketball93-99WFC Bayern Munich107-91WArmani Olimpia Milan101-97WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz93-79LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade58-77

Team comparison

VIRDUB
4-4Record5-3
83.4Points scored / game87.2
86.9Points allowed / game86.7
-3.0Adjusted margin / game+0.4
L2Current streakL1
4-4Last 10 games5-3
2-3 roadHome / road record2-2 home
14-24 (-4.6)Last season19-19 (+0.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.