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FC Barcelona vs Besiktas prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 2

FinalTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
37% win BARwin BJK 63%
FavoriteBJK
Projected margin3.8
Projected total171
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Besiktas Istanbul (1-1) host FC Barcelona (1-1) on Friday, October 2 at 1:00 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. Final score: FC Barcelona 95 – Besiktas 82. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Besiktas Istanbul a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Besiktas Istanbul are 0-1 at home and FC Barcelona are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-1 for Besiktas Istanbul and 1-1 for FC Barcelona (current streaks: Besiktas W1, FC Barcelona L1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Besiktas, but FC Barcelona has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Besiktas 88 – 84 FC Barcelona, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of Besiktas and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • FC Barcelona needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Besiktas
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BJK +1.2 / BAR +0.6 per game
+0.6
Home-court advantageBesiktas at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Besiktas
+3.8

Scenarios

Besiktas win by 10+
30%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
FC Barcelona win by 10+
11%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BARBJK
85.0
Points scored / game
87.5
84.4
Points allowed / game
86.1
0.6
Adjusted margin / game
1.2
50 %
Win %
50 %
1
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BAR
LDubai Basketball87-94WAnadolu Efes Istanbul89-82
BJK
WMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv109-93LValencia Basket94-96

Team comparison

BARBJK
1-1Record1-1
85.0Points scored / game87.5
84.4Points allowed / game86.1
+0.6Adjusted margin / game+1.2
L1Current streakW1
1-1Last 10 games1-1
0-1 roadHome / road record0-1 home
22-18 (+0.8)Last season–

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.