Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce prediction EuroLeague · Friday, January 29
At a glance
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) host Real Madrid (6-3) on Friday, January 29 at 12:45 PM ET at ULKER SPORTS AND EVENT HALL in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Real Madrid a 52% chance to win and projects a 85-84 score (Real Madrid – Fenerbahce), about 169 total points. This season, Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 5-0 at home and Real Madrid are 3-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul and 6-3 for Real Madrid (current streaks: Fenerbahce L2, Real Madrid W6). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 34% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Fenerbahce 84 – 85 Real Madrid, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of Real Madrid and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- Fenerbahce needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Real Madrid's offense (92.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
RMBFBT
Recent form
RMB95-76W
104-86W
113-99W
111-92W
98-89FBT76-95L
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80Team comparison
| RMB | FBT | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | Record | 6-3 |
| 92.4 | Points scored / game | 80.8 |
| 85.6 | Points allowed / game | 78.4 |
| +5.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| W6 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-3 | Last 10 games | 6-3 |
| 3-3 road | Home / road record | 5-0 home |
| 28-16 (+5.1) | Last season | 27-16 (+1.4) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.