Zalgiris vs Paris prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, October 1
At a glance
Paris Basketball (0-2) host Zalgiris Kaunas (1-1) on Thursday, October 1 at 2:45 PM ET at ADIDAS ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Zalgiris 78 – Paris 82. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Zalgiris Kaunas a 60% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Paris Basketball are 0-1 at home and Zalgiris Kaunas are 1-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-2 for Paris Basketball and 1-1 for Zalgiris Kaunas (current streaks: Paris L2, Zalgiris L1).
The analysis Model
Zalgiris is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Paris 86 – 89 Zalgiris, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of Zalgiris and a total around 174 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-3.3 vs +2.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Paris needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Zalgiris' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
ZALPBB
Recent form
ZAL
91-93W
83-77PBB
79-92L
72-91Team comparison
| ZAL | PBB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-2 |
| 87.0 | Points scored / game | 87.1 |
| 83.5 | Points allowed / game | 91.1 |
| +2.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.3 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 1-1 | Last 10 games | 0-2 |
| 1-0 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 24-18 (+3.8) | Last season | 15-23 (-0.9) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.